Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanded Voluntary HIV Testing in India

Background: Despite expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), most of the estimated 2.3 to 2.5 million HIV-infected individuals in India remain undiagnosed. The questions of whom to test for HIV and at what frequency remain unclear. Methods: We used a simulation model of HIV testing and treatment to examine alternative HIV screening strategies: 1) current practice, 2) one-time, 3) every five years, and 4) annually; and we applied these strategies to three population scenarios: 1) the general Indian population (“national population”), i.e. base case (HIV prevalence 0.29%; incidence 0.032/100 person-years [PY]); 2) high-prevalence districts (HIV prevalence 0.8%; incidence 0.088/100 PY), and 3) high-risk groups (HIV prevalence 5.0%; incidence 0.552/100 PY). Cohort characteristics reflected Indians reporting for HIV testing, with a median age of 35 years, 66% men, and a mean CD4 count of 305 cells/µl. The cost of a rapid HIV test was $3.33. Outcomes included life expectancy, HIV-related direct medical costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and secondary transmission benefits. The threshold for “cost-effective” was defined as 3x the annual per capita GDP of India ($3,900/year of life saved [YLS]), or for “very cost-effective” was <1x the annual per capita GDP ($1,300/YLS). Results: Compared to current practice, one-time screening was very cost-effective in the national population (ICER:$1,100/YLS), high-prevalence districts (ICER: $800/YLS), and high-risk groups (ICER:$800/YLS). Screening every five years in the national population (ICER: $1,900/YLS) and annual screening in high-prevalence districts (ICER:$1,900/YLS) and high-risk groups (ICER: $1,800/YLS) were also cost-effective. Results were most sensitive to costs of care and linkage-to-care. Conclusions: In India, voluntary HIV screening of the national population every five years offers substantial clinical benefit and is cost-effective. Annual screening is cost-effective among high-risk groups and in high-prevalence districts nationally. Routine HIV screening in India should be implemented

Neutral Gas Distribution and Kinematics of the Nearly Face-on Spiral Galaxy NGC 1232

We have analyzed high velocity resolution HI synthesis observations of the nearly face-on Sc galaxy NGC 1232. The neutral gas distribution extends well beyond the optical extent of the galaxy. As expected, local peaks in the HI column density are associated with the spiral arms. Further, the HI column density drops precipitously near the center of the galaxy. Closed contours in the velocity field suggest either that the system is warped, or that the rotation curve declines. The velocity dispersion is approximately constant throughout the system, with a median value of 9.9 +/- 1.8 km/s. When corrected for rotational broadening, there is no indication of a radial trend in the neutral gas velocity dispersion in this galaxy.Comment: 14 pages of text, 10 pages of figures. Accepted to the A

Dose-dependent T-cell Dynamics and Cytokine Cascade Following rVSV-ZEBOV Immunization.

BACKGROUND: The recent West African Ebola epidemic led to accelerated efforts to test Ebola vaccine candidates. As part of the World Health Organisation-led VSV Ebola Consortium (VEBCON), we performed a phase I clinical trial investigating rVSV-ZEBOV (a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-vectored Ebola vaccine), which has recently demonstrated protection from Ebola virus disease (EVD) in phase III clinical trials and is currently in advanced stages of licensing. So far, correlates of immune protection are incompletely understood and the role of cell-mediated immune responses has not been comprehensively investigated to date. METHODS: We recruited 30 healthy subjects aged 18-55 into an open-label, dose-escalation phase I trial testing three doses of rVSV-ZEBOV (3×105 plaque-forming units (PFU), 3×106 PFU, 2×107 PFU) (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT02283099). Main study objectives were safety and immunogenicity, while exploratory objectives included lymphocyte dynamics, cell-mediated immunity and cytokine networks, which were assessed using flow cytometry, ELISpot and LUMINEX assay. FINDINGS: Immunization with rVSV-ZEBOV was well tolerated without serious vaccine-related adverse events. Ebola virus-specific neutralizing antibodies were induced in nearly all individuals. Additionally, vaccinees, particularly within the highest dose cohort, generated Ebola glycoprotein (GP)-specific T cells and initiated a cascade of signaling molecules following stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells with Ebola GP peptides. INTERPRETATION: In addition to a benign safety and robust humoral immunogenicity profile, subjects immunized with 2×107 PFU elicited higher cellular immune responses and stronger interlocked cytokine networks compared to lower dose groups. To our knowledge these data represent the first detailed cell-mediated immuneprofile of a clinical trial testing rVSV-ZEBOV, which is of particular interest in light of its potential upcoming licensure as the first Ebola vaccine. VEBCON trial Hamburg, Germany (NCT02283099)

Development, Calibration and Performance of an HIV Transmission Model Incorporating Natural History and Behavioral Patterns: Application in South Africa

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates

The speculative turn in IVF: egg freezing and the financialization of fertility

Although egg freezing has received much scholarly attention, the pivotal role of financialisation in the fertility (preservation) sector remains understudied. This article discusses how processes of financialisation have instigated a step-change in the organisation of contemporary US IVF and why egg freezing is at the heart of a wider consolidating trend in the sector. The financialisation of fertility, in this context, references the financial investments in a future in which ever more women freeze their eggs, the role of capital markets in establishing new clinical and commercial infrastructures through which egg freezing becomes accessible and the role of financial products in shaping both the stories and the streamlining of fertility treatments. Together, these developments signal a shift from reproduction to fertility in IVF, in which treatment is not aimed at having a child at present, but rather at the proactive management of a more speculative fertility throughout the life course.Alan Turing Institut

Distinct Patterns of IFITM-Mediated Restriction of Filoviruses, SARS Coronavirus, and Influenza A Virus

Interferon-inducible transmembrane proteins 1, 2, and 3 (IFITM1, 2, and 3) are recently identified viral restriction factors that inhibit infection mediated by the influenza A virus (IAV) hemagglutinin (HA) protein. Here we show that IFITM proteins restricted infection mediated by the entry glycoproteins (GP1,2) of Marburg and Ebola filoviruses (MARV, EBOV). Consistent with these observations, interferon-β specifically restricted filovirus and IAV entry processes. IFITM proteins also inhibited replication of infectious MARV and EBOV. We observed distinct patterns of IFITM-mediated restriction: compared with IAV, the entry processes of MARV and EBOV were less restricted by IFITM3, but more restricted by IFITM1. Moreover, murine Ifitm5 and 6 did not restrict IAV, but efficiently inhibited filovirus entry. We further demonstrate that replication of infectious SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and entry mediated by the SARS-CoV spike (S) protein are restricted by IFITM proteins. The profile of IFITM-mediated restriction of SARS-CoV was more similar to that of filoviruses than to IAV. Trypsin treatment of receptor-associated SARS-CoV pseudovirions, which bypasses their dependence on lysosomal cathepsin L, also bypassed IFITM-mediated restriction. However, IFITM proteins did not reduce cellular cathepsin activity or limit access of virions to acidic intracellular compartments. Our data indicate that IFITM-mediated restriction is localized to a late stage in the endocytic pathway. They further show that IFITM proteins differentially restrict the entry of a broad range of enveloped viruses, and modulate cellular tropism independently of viral receptor expression

Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data

The celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data have appeared numerous times in the epidemic modelling literature, but in almost all cases only a specific subset of the data is considered. The only previous analysis of the full data set relied on approximation methods to derive a likelihood and did not assess model adequacy. The data themselves continue to be of interest due to concerns about the possible re-emergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism weapon. We present the first full Bayesian statistical analysis using data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which avoid the need for likelihood approximations and which yield a wider range of results than previous analyses. We also carry out model assessment using simulation-based methods. Our findings suggest that the outbreak was largely driven by the interaction structure of the population, and that the introduction of control measures was not the sole reason for the end of the epidemic. We also obtain quantitative estimates of key quantities including reproduction numbers

Psychological, peer, and family influences on smoking among an adolescent psychiatric sample

While much is known about adolescent cigarette use and initiation in community samples, less is known about these factors among adolescents in clinic-referred populations or those with severe psychopathology. Data were collected from 106 adolescents aged 12 to 15 years (M = 13.6; SD = .74) recruited from a psychiatric inpatient facility. Hierarchical logistic regressions assessed the relationship between psychological, peer, and family environment factors and smoking at baseline and 18 months post-hospitalization. Conduct problem symptoms, friends’ cigarette use, and friends’ marijuana use were associated with greater odds of lifetime and current smoking at baseline, but not at follow-up. After accounting for the significant effect of baseline use, greater family conflict predicted decreased odds of having initiated smoking at the 18 month follow-up. The period following inpatient psychiatric hospitalization may represent an important window for smoking cessation and prevention efforts targeting peer and family factors, especially for youth with externalizing problems

Antithrombotic Treatment in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Insights for Cerebrovascular and Bleeding Events

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has emerged as a therapeutic alternative for patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis at high or prohibitive surgical risk. However, patients undergoing TAVI are also at high risk for both bleeding and stroke complications, and specific mechanical aspects of the procedure itself can increase the risk of these complications. The mechanisms of periprocedural bleeding complications seem to relate mainly to vascular/access site complications (related to the use of large catheters in a very old and frail elderly population), whereas the pathophysiology of cerebrovascular events remains largely unknown. Further, although mechanical complications, especially the interaction between the valve prosthesis and the native aortic valve, may play a major role in events that occur during TAVI, post-procedural events might also be related to a prothrombotic environment or state generated by the implanted valve, the occurrence of atrial arrhythmias, and associated comorbidities. Antithrombotic therapy in the setting of TAVI has been empirically determined, and unfractionated heparin during the procedure followed by dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin (indefinitely) and clopidogrel (1 to 6 months) is the most commonly recommended treatment. However, bleeding and cerebrovascular events are common; these may be modifiable with optimization of periprocedural and post-procedural pharmacology. Further, as the field of antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy evolves, potential drug combinations will multiply, introducing variability in treatment. Randomized trials are the best path forward to determine the balance between the efficacy and risks of antithrombotic treatment in this high risk-population

A Randomized Trial to Identify Accurate and Cost-Effective Fidelity Measurement Methods for Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy: Project FACTS Study Protocol

Background: This randomized trial will compare three methods of assessing fidelity to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for youth to identify the most accurate and cost-effective method. The three methods include self-report (i.e., therapist completes a self-report measure on the CBT interventions used in session while circumventing some of the typical barriers to self-report), chart-stimulated recall (i.e., therapist reports on the CBT interventions used in session via an interview with a trained rater, and with the chart to assist him/her) and behavioral rehearsal (i.e., therapist demonstrates the CBT interventions used in session via a role-play with a trained rater). Direct observation will be used as the gold-standard comparison for each of the three methods. Methods/design: This trial will recruit 135 therapists in approximately 12 community agencies in the City of Philadelphia. Therapists will be randomized to one of the three conditions. Each therapist will provide data from three unique sessions, for a total of 405 sessions. All sessions will be audio-recorded and coded using the Therapy Process Observational Coding System for Child Psychotherapy-Revised Strategies scale. This will enable comparison of each measurement approach to direct observation of therapist session behavior to determine which most accurately assesses fidelity. Cost data associated with each method will be gathered. To gather stakeholder perspectives of each measurement method, we will use purposive sampling to recruit 12 therapists from each condition (total of 36 therapists) and 12 supervisors to participate in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Discussion: Results will provide needed information on how to accurately and cost-effectively measure therapist fidelity to CBT for youth, as well as important information about stakeholder perspectives with regard to each measurement method. Findings will inform fidelity measurement practices in future implementation studies as well as in clinical practice. Trial registration: NCT02820623, June 3rd, 2016